Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...

In this paper we develop a spatial Cournot trade model with two unequally sized countries, using the geographical interpretation of the Hotelling line. We analyze the trade and welfare effects of international trade between these two countries. The welfare analysis indicates that in this...

Brazil is, today, the largest producer and exporter of sugar in the world, having as main competitors and price makers India and China. In the production of this commodity, there are the sugar mills and ethanol in the State of Sao Paulo. The disposal of the product is mainly done by road...

This dissertation examines the key prediction of trade models à la Dixit-Stiglitz for the EU-27. Precisely, we test if regional market accessibility determines regional income differences in the enlarged European Union. We propose an empirical strategy that overcomes weaknesses of existing...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/18/10.