A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self-organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth...

The record price development in commodity markets during the economic boom period lasting from early 2000 to mid 2008 highlighted a perceived scarcity particularly in metal markets that contrasted the preceding period beginning in the late 1970s of largely abundant availability and falling real...

A system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the...

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the...

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no...

A viable safeguards system includes among other things the development and use of indices which trigger various courses of action. The usual limit of error calculation provides such an index. The classical approach is one of constructing tests which, under certain assumptions, make the...

The European Community (EC) recently commissioned a study of the impact of potential appliance standards on electricity consumption in the twelve EC nations. This study looks at refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, and clothes dryers. The impact of minimum efficiency standards...