The first essay introduces a Bayesian logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (LSTVAR) approach to investigating the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy. We find that the British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by growth in the US, France and Germany....

A popular account for the demise of the UK monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the weak predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output. In this paper, we investigate these relationships using a variety of monetary aggregates which were used as intermediate...

A popular account for the demise of the UK monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the weak predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output. In this paper, we investigate these relationships using a variety of monetary aggregates which were used as intermediate...

The first essay attempts to explain how the economy responds to transient exogenous exchange rate and cost-push shocks using a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates prices and wage stickiness and cost channel of interest rate to inflation. The model...

Similar to global currencies, the Zambian currency (kwacha) has varied considerably against major currencies since the early 1990s. Existing empirical evidence reveals that fluctuations in exchange rates can potentially generate distortions in the economy. However, insufficient empirical...

This thesis provides an applied macroeconometric study of the determination ofoutput and inflation and of stabilization policy. Its focus is on the time series analysisof output and inflation, concentrating on the use of direct measures of expectationsand data obtained in real time, and modelled...