Diese Dissertation setzt sich zusammen aus drei separaten Aufsätzen, welche sich aus empirischer Sicht mit verschiedenen Aspekten der Zusammenhänge zwischen Finanzmärkten und der Makroökonomie beschäftigen. Kapitel 1 ("Long Horizon Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns: New...

This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms...

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279?288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach,...

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, developing countries, including Georgia, experienced several currency crises followed by severe recessions and deteriorated macroeconomic stability. This creates incentives for policymakers to predict currency crises in a timely manner, and avoid...