Probability forecasts play an important role in many decision and risk analysis applications. Research and practice over the years have shown that the shift towards distributional forecasts provides a more accurate and appropriate means of capturing risk in models for these applications. This...

The present report is intended to cover fully the activities of the long-range forecastproject both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and at the U. S. Weather Bureauin Washington, between July 1, 1940, and August 1, 1941. It includes all materialbearing on the activities of the...

In the southern Great Plains of the United States, winter wheat is a dual purpose crop that produces forage for livestock grazing in the fall and winter, and a grain crop in the spring. Seasonal and interannual climate variations are pronounced and make it difficult to anticipate forage...

An international wheat trade model incorporating climate variability is used to simulate different scenarios when wheat producers in the USA, Canada, and Australia adopt El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate forecasts for use in production decisions. Adoption timing and rates are...

The economics of information is a broad field covering all aspects of information including decision making. We briefly describe 4 methods used to model the decision-making process. This is not an exhaustive list of the methods used to value information, nor are differences between the methods...

To be immediately useful in practical applications that employ daily weather generators, seasonal climate forecasts issued for overlapping 3-month periods need to be disaggregated into a sequence of 1-month forecasts. Direct linear algebraic approaches to disaggregation produce physically...

This investigation addresses a practical question from an agricultural planning and management perspective: are the NOAA/CPC seasonal climate forecasts skillful enough to retain utility after they have been downscaled to field and daily scales for use in crop models to predict impacts on crop...