"This paper estimates the effect of higher crude-oil prices on the inflation rate in the U.S. It does so by estimating … crude oil prices. This term is inserted using a third degree polynomial distributed lag of four quarters that allows not … only for some immediate impact on the consumer price index (e.g. through gasoline prices), but also for a delayed impact as …

forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply … crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the …

accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8 … heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to … considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy …

.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating …This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information … analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO …

and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly … future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and … deterministic forecasting. …

the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new … understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key …

(CIA) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasting models of world oil prices is presented. This comparison consists of … encompassing. In particular, the analysis does not provide data on crude oil prices in the spot market, but does provide … changes in oil prices. Throughout this paper, world oil prices are defined in terms of real 1978 dollars per barrel of crude …

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic … short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various …