This paper accomplishes two objectives. First, this paper estimates a model for oil wells drilled in the Gulf of Mexico using specific time series models. In the second objective, the number of wells drilled are applied to the COMPAS model for Louisiana. Wells drilled are treated as final demand...

In this dissertation we propose a class of time series models for mixture data. We call these logistic mixtures. In such models the mixture's component densities have a generalized linear model (GLM) form. The regime probabilities are allowed to change over time and are modeled with a logistic...

Currently, evidence on the ‘resource curse’ yields a conundrum. While there is much crosssection evidence to support the curse hypothesis, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise the growth of commodity exporters. This paper adopts...

Currently, evidence on the ‘resource curse’ yields a conundrum. While there is much crosssection evidence to support the curse hypothesis, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise the growth ofcommodity exporters. This paper adopts...

This paper investigates the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity-dependent countries. Using a large cross-country dataset, we find that negative shocks matter for short-term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to...

Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using...

Prices for nearly all basic commodity rose at unprecedented rates throughout early 2008, only to fall nearly as fast as financial markets and global economies began to collapse. Rising food prices in 2008 led to concerns that commodity price spikes would lead to more general food inflation, but...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/09.

Exchange rates have long been thought to have an important impact on the export and importof goods and services, and, thus, exchange rates are expected to influence the price of thoseproducts that are traded. At the same time, energy impacts commodity production in somevery important ways. The...

The relationship between complete-feed prices and ingredient prices is estimated in order to analyze the effect of higher commodity prices on feed costs, with particular attention paid to the substitutability of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS). Using the historical price...