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A Multivariate Discriminant Analysis is described, aimed at predicting the direction of changes in the Hong Kong tender price index by utilising the patterns of change in eight leading economic indicators. Two discriminant functions are derived which distinguish between ‘upward’,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437815
This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443344
Agricultural producers and input suppliers must regularly make decisions based on forecasts; however, most publicly … available forecasts are for outputs. Research has shown the importance of being a low-cost operator. Thus, focusing on inputs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444418
Hedging effectiveness is the proportion of price risk removed through hedging. Empiricalhedging studies typically estimate a set of risk minimizing hedge ratios, estimate the hedgingeffectiveness statistic, apply the estimated hedge ratios to a second group of data, and examinethe robustness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009446391
This paper explores the applicability of time series analysis for stock trend forecast and presents the Self projecting Time Series Forecasting (STSF) System which we have developed. The basic idea behind this system is the online discovery of mathematical formulae that can approximately...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009448087
underestimate the range ofuncertainty in oil and gas price forecasts. These forecasts traditionally considerpessimistic, most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464789
addresses decision support experiments and evaluations that have used seasonal-to-interannual forecasts and observational data … with these forecasts and data in resource management; (2) climatologists, hydrologists, and social scientists on how to … (3) science and resource managers as they plan for future investments in research related to forecasts and their role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475031
, 142) on the characteristics of financial analysts' earnings forecasts after mergers. Specifically, I predict lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475095
Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks,and utility companies. While short …-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium andlong-range forecasts have almost always been highly erroneous. In the U.S. many … energypolicy decisions are driven by Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecasts prepared byEnergy Information Association (EIA). This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009459147
-rate method ever devised for early-design-stage tender price forecasts. However, the method is seldom used in practice partly … forecasts than the MJSEM and floor area models, leading to the conclusion that RMASEM may be the best model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483259