We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

This research aims to unravel the factors shaping current account imbalances in Ghana, with a focus on understanding the underlying causes and implications for the country's economic stability. The study explores the multifaceted nature of these imbalances by examining structural factors,...

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded-good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...

The balance of payments crises that have shaken the world in the last two decades have awakened interest in academic and political circles in creating systems for discovering the causes of the disturbances that end in currency crisis. If disturbances on foreign exchange markets could be...

The “signals” approach is used in constructing an effective system of early warning indicators heralding currency disturbances. This sistem monitors the behaviour of various macroeconomic and financial variables that tend to exhibit an unusual in the periods preceding a disturbance or...

In this paper we explores how the “signal” approach can be used to examine determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies during 1990s. We construct the measure of currency disturbance – index of foreign exchange market pressure as a referent series. The “signals”...

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

This paper re-examines indicators of currency crises from Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and subsequent studies using the novel application of a ROC curves analysis. It utilizes a training set (1975-1995) to short-list indicators with the in-sample predictive value and tests their out-of-sample in...