The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the … index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale - in forecasting …

prediction intervals. Application of the mean response model (fixed-effects parameters only) to independent data indicated an …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical … models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

and prediction uncertainty with different probability structures. Several examples are presented utilizing this metric. We …). Secondly, we expand our earlier discussions (Hills and Trucano, 1999, 2001) on the impact of multivariate correlation and the … effect of this on model validation metrics. We show that ignoring correlation in multivariate data can lead to misleading …

-to-use method for human reliability analysis. Calculation of human error probability (HEP) rates is especially straightforward … for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). Where error rates were not readily derived from THERP and other sources, expert …