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Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo; Jarsun, Nabil - 2020

substantial evidence of predictability both in-sample and out-of-sample. Our paper is part of a growing literature that in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382

The case for higher frequency inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle C. - 2011

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637

Forecasting inflation in Asian economies

Liew, Freddy - 2012

This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230710

Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates

Barnett, William; Park, Sohee - 2021

This paper investigates the performance of the Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in forecasting U.S. inflation and output growth at the 12-month horizon. We compute recursive and rolling out-of-sample forecasts using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model based on Divisia...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257971

The predictive relationship between exchange rate expectations and base metal prices

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2018

. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal Exchange Index. Previous studies have shown that the Chilean exchange …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261799

Forecasting Aluminum Prices with Commodity Currencies

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolás - 2019

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738

Examining the Success of the Central Banks in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Dynamics of Inflation Gap and the Institutional Characteristics

Ardakani, Omid; Kishor, N. Kundan - 2014

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual inflation and inflation target, into predictable and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015244051

ARIMA ve VAR Modellerinin Tahmin Başarılarının Karşılaştırılması

Bilgili, Faik - 2001

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI …, identifies the best VAR model among others through Sims, LR and SC, and, AC criteria. Eventually, statistical analyses throughout … MAE, MAPE, MSE, RMSE, Theil U1 and Theil U2 criteria evaluations, this paper reveals that VAR forecast is superior to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015254124

Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?

Manzan, Sebastiano; Zerom, Dawit - 2009

no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …, housing starts, and the term spread provide significant out-of-sample predictability for the distribution of core inflation … research shows that macroeconomic indicators do not add much to the predictability of the future mean inflation. This paper …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216359

Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan using Artificial Neural Networks

Haider, Adnan; Hanif, Muhammad Nadeem - 2007

An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216499