This paper estimates the slope of the yield curve using quarterly data on real GDP and the nominal spread proxied by the difference in returns from the 10 year bond rate and the 90 day bill rate. The time-series analysis after proper unit root tests using stationary variables revealed that the...

Diese Dissertation setzt sich zusammen aus drei separaten Aufsätzen, welche sich aus empirischer Sicht mit verschiedenen Aspekten der Zusammenhänge zwischen Finanzmärkten und der Makroökonomie beschäftigen. Kapitel 1 ("Long Horizon Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Returns: New...

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279?288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach,...

This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms...

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, developing countries, including Georgia, experienced several currency crises followed by severe recessions and deteriorated macroeconomic stability. This creates incentives for policymakers to predict currency crises in a timely manner, and avoid...

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, developing countries, including Georgia, experienced several currency crises followed by severe recessions and deteriorated macroeconomic stability. This creates incentives for policymakers to predict currency crises in a timely manner, and avoid...

Since the publication of Keynes' “General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” in 1936 many new ideas and solution concepts for macroeconomic problems emerged, disappeared, and were combined in order to appropriately describe macroeconomic phenomena. Nowadays, New Keynesian frameworks...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...

This dissertation investigates the properties of macroeconomic fluctuations in a small open economy under the presence of sovereign default risk. International borrowing and lending arise from the interaction between a risk averse sovereign representative agent in a small open economy trying to...