This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premiums on monthly exchange-rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

We propose an empirical model for deviations from long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) that simultaneously accounts for three key features: (i) adjustment toward PPP may occur via nominal exchange rates and relative prices at different speeds; (ii) different exchange rate regimes may generate...

This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term Structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. journal...

A number of papers have documented a significant decline in real GDP volatility in several major OECD economies. Some authors have presented evidence to suggest that this is the outcome of a one-off structural break from a high to low volatility state whilst others have estimated regime...

A major puzzle in international finance is the inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While prior research has generally evaluated exchange rate forecasts using conventional statistical...

We investigate the predictive information content in foreign exchange volatility risk premia for exchange rate returns. The volatility risk premium is the difference between realized volatility and a model-free measure of expected volatility that is derived from currency options, and reflects...

We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium—the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied...

Using long-span data on the dollar-sterling and dollar-franc real exchange rates over the past two centuries, we apply the findings of various strands of the recent literature in order to examine the statistical and economic significance of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect (the effect of...

This paper revisits one of the oldest questions in international finance: does the forward exchange rate contain useful information about of the future path of the spot exchange rate? We present a theoretical framework and provide evidence that challenges the common view (Mussa (1979); Dornbusch...

Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other assetprice) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an...