Accurately estimating the winning probabilities of participants in competitive events, such as elections and sports events, represents a challenge to standard forecasting frameworks such as regression or classification. They are not designed for modelling the competitive element, whereby a...

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses' winning...

The aim of much horserace modelling is to appraise the informational efficiency of betting markets. The prevailing approach involves forecasting the runners’ finish positions by means of discrete or continuous response regression models. However, theoretical considerations and empirical...

The stock market capitalization (SMC) of a country, defined as the aggregated market value equity of companies in the respective equity market, is commonly used to measure the widening and deepening of stock market activity. SMC also influences economic growth predictions and public consensus...

Previous literature has highlighted the need to consider explicitly gender differences in leisure behaviour. This paper directly addresses this issue by exploring differences in performance, risk propensity and confidence between males and females in off-course horserace betting — a leisure...

We document an apparently widespread violation of dominance in the horse-racing betting market in the UK, and use the systematic variation in the incidence of this violation to estimate the consumption value of gambling. Betting-shop gamblers in the UK face a tax on gambling of 10%, but have the...

This short paper offers a critical appraisal of a recent contribution to the debate on efficiency in the particular context of horserace betting markets. A number of specific criticisms are detailed. These include the failure of the authors to capture inefficiency signals which relate to...

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the favourite-longshot bias - an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for...

In recent years leading figures in a variety of fields - political, financial, medical, and organizational - have become acutely aware of the need to effectively incorporate aspects of risk into their decision-making. This book addresses a wide range of contemporary issues in decision research,...

Die kumulative Dissertation beschreibt in 14 Fachartikeln die sogenannte Support Vektor Maschine als eine aktuell diskutierte Methodik zur Lösung betriebswirtschaftlicher Klassifikationsprobleme. Die Klassifikation wird dabei als eine Aufgabenstellung des Data Minings verstanden, welches die...