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Armstrong, J. Scott - 2001

To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439166

Shared Preferences and State-Dependent Utilities

Schervish, Mark J.; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Kadane, Joseph B. - 1991

This investigation combines two questions for expected utility theory: 1. When do the shared preferences among expected utility maximizers conform to the dictates of expected utility? 2. What is the impact on expected utility theory of allowing preferences for prizes to be state-dependent? Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440970

Procedural group identification

Dimitrov, Dinko; Sung, Shao Chin; Xu, Yongsheng - 2006

In this paper we axiomatically characterize two recursive procedures for defining a social group. The first procedure starts with the set of all individuals who are defined by everyone in the society as group members, while the starting point of the second procedure is the set of all individuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009452516

Causal Inference with Two-Stage Logistic Regression - Accuracy, Precision, and Application

Cai, Bing - 2010

2SPS and 2SRI for logistic binary outcomes have not been thoroughly studied. We study the bias and variance properties … trial. We first present closed form expressions of asymptotic bias for the causal odds ratio from both 2SPS and 2SRI … approaches. Our closed form bias results show that the 2SPS logistic regression generates asymptotically biased estimates of this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439053

Better Safe than Sorry: Precautionary Reasoning and Implied Dominance in Risky Decisions

DeKay, Michael L.; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Fischbeck, … - 2005

alternatives can seriously bias the evaluation of consequences in risky high-stakes decisions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441242

Better Safe than Sorry: Precautionary Reasoning and Implied Dominance in Risky Decisions

DeKay, Michael L.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Fischbeck, … - 2008

alternatives can seriously bias the evaluation of consequences in risky high-stakes decisions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441300

Open-Access Fishery Models: Relaxing a Constraint and Removing an Econometric Obstacle

Gomersall, C. Nicholas - 1992

Over the past 30 years, a widely accepted model of "open-access" fisheries has been developed, yet empirical tests of the standard model have been relatively few. One difficulty is that fish stocks, the levels of which affect the rate of catch, are not directly observable. Simplifying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444643

The Impacts of Attribute Level Framing and Changing Cost Levels on Choice Experiments Value Estimates

Kragt, Marit Ellen; Bennett, Jeffrey W. - 2010

Choice Experiments (CE) are increasingly used to estimate the values of environmental goods andservices. CE questionnaires represent the environmental good under valuation by varying levels ofnon-market attributes. Inclusion of a cost attribute enables the estimation of monetary values...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009446025

Bias Reduction and Goodness-of-Fit Tests in Conditional Logistic Regression Models

Sinha, Samiran (contributor); Wang, Suojin (contributor) - 2010

bias preventive approach developed by Firth (1993) to handlethe bias of an estimator of the log-odds ratio parameter in … conditional logistic regression bysolving a modified score equation. The resultant estimator not only reduces bias but alsocan …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464883

Choke price bias in choice experiments

Morkbak, Morten Raun; Christensen, Tove; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte - 2010

This paper reports on the results from a split sample choice experiment, where the effect of changing the maximum level of the cost attribute is investigated. The hypothesis was that changing the maximum price level would either give rise to an income effect or have no effect on consumers'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009448676