In canonical vector time series autoregressions, which permit dependence only on past values, the errors generally show contemporaneous correlation. By contrast structural vector autoregressions allow contemporaneous series dependence and assume errors with no contemporaneous correlation. Such...

Climate forecasting systems that group years on the basis of a climate forecasting index like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are quite simple to explain to industry personnel. Phase systems identify a subset of years (analogues) that have the same phase...