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Threshold Autoregressive Models (TAR) along with other nonlinear time series models have attracted much attention in recent years in time series analysis. TAR models have been applied to a variety of time series. It has been reported that they have a good in sample fit but like many other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009447232
The paper develops an approach for analyzing the dynamics of a nonlinear time series that is represented by a nonparametric estimate of its one-step ahead conditional density. The approach entails examination of conditional moment profiles corresponding to certain shocks; a conditional moment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475493
Many processes of interest in social science research are recorded as nominal variables with two or more categories such as employment status, occupation, political preference and self-reported health status. With panel data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009448523
The variational approach to Bayesian inference enables simultaneous estimation of model parameters and model complexity. An interesting feature of this approach is that it also leads to an automatic choice of model complexity. Empirical results from the analysis of hidden Markov models with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483221
This paper first identifies the level of cyclical systemic risks in Spain, also calibrating their impact on the solvency of the banking system, and, second, assesses the costs and benefits of the countercyclical use of capital requirements. The first part of the paper is based on an integrated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014573595
Este documento presenta un conjunto amplio de análisis para, en primer lugar, identificar el nivel de los riesgos sistémicos cíclicos en España y calibrar su impacto sobre la solvencia del sistema bancario y, adicionalmente, valorar los costes y beneficios del uso contracíclico de los...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014573644
Time series monitoring methods, such as the Brown and Trigg methods, have the purpose of detecting pattern breaks (or “signals”) in time series data reliably and in a timely fashion. Traditionally, researchers have used the average run length statistic (ARL) on results from generated signal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441237
their relevance in forecasting models: (a) where the breaks occur after forecasts are announced; and (b) where they occur in …-sample and hence pre-forecasting. The impact on forecasts depends on which features of the models are non-constant. Different … parameters of a particular model, the consequences for forecasting are specific to the type of break and form of model. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441390
The price transmission between markets is often interpreted as providing insights into the market’s infrastructure efficiency and transaction costs. Thus, finding a possible explanation for the degree of integration has become an issue of special interest. Recent researchers have pointed out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443372
The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets hasbeen a popular research topic of the past decades (see MEYER, VON CRAMONTAUBADEL,2004, for a recent survey), however with a few exceptions these studiesfocused on developed economies. In this paper we examine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009445581