Drei große Reformenpakete und eine Reihe kleinerer Begleitmaßnahmen prägen das renten¬politische Erbe der rot-grünen Bundesregierung. Einerseits greifen sie Trends in der Reformpolitik seit Beginn der 90er Jahre auf. So verstärkt die Rentenstrukturreform 2001 beispielsweise die...

In den vergangenen Jahren ist die Untersuchung des Risikomanagements vom Baselkomitee angeregt, um die Kredit- und Bankwesen regelmäßig zu aufsichten. Für viele multivariate Risikomanagementmethoden gibt es jedoch Beschränkungen von: 1) verlässt sich die Kovarianzschätzung auf eine...

In this thesis we propose a risk management methodology to high-dimensional financial portfolios. Instead of estimating the joint density of the portfolios in a high-dimensional space, we are encouraged by using the independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose the dependent risk factors to...

An important empirical fact in financial market is that return distributions are often skewed and heavy-tailed. This paper employs maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the five parameters of generalized hyperbolic distribution, a highly flexible heavy-tailed distribution. The estimation...

This study examines the distributional properties of futures prices for contracts traded on LIFFE. A filtering process is employed to remove day of the week and holiday effects, a maturity effect, moving average effects and the influence of an asset's conditional variance from the raw returns...

This thesis is mainly concerned with the estimation of parameters of a first-order Smooth Threshold Autoregressive (STAR) model with delay parameter one. The estimation procedures include classical and Bayesian methods from a parametric and a semiparametric point of view.As the theoretical...

Stochastic di®erential equations (SDEs) are　central to much of modern finance theory and have been widely used to model the behaviour of key variables such as the　instantaneous short-term interest rate, asset prices, asset returns and their volatility.　The explanatory and/or predictive...

Conference Paper

Quantitative policy analysts are usually confronted with the problem to derive a base-line scenario that reflects the most likely state of an economy in a future year. The methods used in practice to derive such a base-line scenarios are heterogeneous and range from the usage of the last...

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized...