Economic statistics can be used to inform policy as it is being designed, avoid policy design mistakes, or implement government programs once they are established into law. Oftentimes, statistics are used for all three purposes. This paper considers the relationships between statistics and...

This article focuses on the modeling of agricultural yield data using hierarchical Bayesian models. In recovering the generating process of these data, we consider the temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal relationships pertinent to the prediction and pricing of insurance contracts based on...

The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the risks of corn and soybean production. This study focuses on the risk of revenue variability that arises from changes in prices, yields shortfalls or both. There are several models for price and yield risk factors for corn and soybeans. For...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/18/08.

The last three years have realized significant structural changes in the U.S. agricultural policy environment. These changes include nearly complete planting flexibility and the elimination of target-price-based income support for agricultural producers. Many have questioned the extent to which...

The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate. We extend a multi-equation structural model of crop acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage developed in Goodwin...

Recent empirical research and development in the cattle industry suggest several reasons to suspect structural change in economic relationships determining cattle prices. Standard forecasting models may ignore structural change and may produce biased and misleading forecasts. Vector...

In the US forestry industry, wildfire has always been one of the leading causes of damage. This topic is of growing interest as wildfire has caused huge losses for landowners, residents and governments in recent years. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied (e.g. Butry 2009; Holmes...

This paper discusses the volatility spillover effects in agricultural commodity markets, via studying implied volatilities derived from nearby options contracts. Using weekly averaged data from corn and soybean markets after 2003, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is estimated, and impulse...

Our study focuses on modeling southern pine beetle (SPB) outbreaks in the southern area. The approach is to evaluate SPB outbreak frequency in a spatio-temporal framework. A block bootstrapping method with zero-inflated estimation has been proposed to construct a statistical model accounting for...