Economic statistics can be used to inform policy as it is being designed, avoid policy design mistakes, or implement government programs once they are established into law. Oftentimes, statistics are used for all three purposes. This paper considers the relationships between statistics and...

This article focuses on the modeling of agricultural yield data using hierarchical Bayesian models. In recovering the generating process of these data, we consider the temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal relationships pertinent to the prediction and pricing of insurance contracts based on...

The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the risks of corn and soybean production. This study focuses on the risk of revenue variability that arises from changes in prices, yields shortfalls or both. There are several models for price and yield risk factors for corn and soybeans. For...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/18/08.

Favorable weather and the adoption of Genetically Modified (GM) cornhybrids are often argued to be factors that explain recent corn yield increasesand risk reduction in the U.S. Corn Belt. The focus of this analysisis to determine whether favorable weather is the main factor explainingincreased...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/10.

The oilseed products complex is an important component of the U.S. agricultural sector. In 2000, almost 75 million acres were planted to soybeans, representing over 29 percent of total planted acreage, making soybeans second only to corn in terms of acreage (ERS/USDA, 2000). Soybean acreage has...

Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. We consider short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In...

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasingfeed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude ofsustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particularthose with...

A variety of crop revenue insurance programs have recently been introduced. A critical component of revenue insurance contracts is quantifying the risk associated with stochastic prices. Forward-looking, market-based measures of price risk which are often available in form of options premia are...