In this paper we examine several approaches to detecting changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated VARs. We adopt recursive and rolling techniques as mis-specification tests for the detection of non-constancy and the estimation of the breakpoints. We find that inspection of the...

Abstract only: Today’s data analysts and modellers are in the luxurious position of being able to more closely describe, estimate, predict and infer about complex systems of interest, thanks to ever more powerful computational methods but also wider ranges of modelling distributions. Mixture...

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate...

Florax et al. [Florax, R.J.G.M., Folmer, H., Rey, S.J., 2003. Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 33, 557–579] undertook a simulation study designed to assess the properties of various selection strategies...

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Life insurance and pension funds offer a wide range of products that are invested in a mix ofassets. These portfolios (II), underlying the products, are rebalanced back to predetermined fixedproportions on a regular basis. This is done by selling the better performing assets...

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost of granting executive stocks with strike prices adjusted by the cost of capital. Design/methodology/approach – In the paper a Monte Carlo simulation approach developed in Longstaff and Schwartz is used in conjunction with the...

Incluye bibliografía ; For reasons of empirical tractability, analysis of cointegrated economic time series is often developed in a partial setting, in which a subset of variables is explictly modeled conditional on the rest. This approach yields valid inference only if the conditioning...

Thesis (MSc (Mathematical Sciences))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011.

A recent outbreak of bird flu or avian influenza (AI), an especially highly pathogenicstrain (HPAI) of H5N1, started in Hong Kong in January 2003 and caused 159 humandeaths in Asia, Africa and Europe through early 2007. In addition, this outbreak resultedin millions of slaughtered birds and...