In our last report to this committee, we noted that we had changed our fore-casting methodology, and were updating our data set each month to reflect the data that existed at that time, and then constructed truly ex-ante forecasts based on these data sets. Our analysis of the behavior of...

Since the last meeting of this committee, we have been experimenting with a different presentation of our forecasts of the MI - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier. In the past we have always constructed forecasts directly from the forecasts of the various component ratios, which come out of the...

At the last meeting of this committee, we presented forecasts for the M 1 - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier in seasonally adjusted form for the first time. The seasonal adjustment was accomplished by utilizing the published seasonal factors for various components of the monety stock as...

At a quick glance, the behavior of various monetary aggregates in the recent past is quite bewildering. Since the beginning of 1991 (through June, 1992) Ml has grown at an annual rate of 10.5 percent, the adjusted monetary base at an annual rate of 7.8 percent, adjusted reserves at an annual...

Recently members of the research staff of the Board of Governors have constructed a model of the inflation process that has received considerable attention.' The purpose of this paper is to review critically the assumptions that are the basis of that inflation model and to examine a model of...

This position paper is divided into three parts. In the first part an analysis is present indicating the extent to which various forces have affected the growth of M1 since last November. (At the time of this writing August data are not yet available. I expect that the analysis can be updated to...

During recent months the behavior of the various monetary aggregates in the United States has been the subject of almost continuous commentary. The most frequent conclusion is that the observed behavior has been dominated by a number ofunique events. First it was alleged that the behavior of M1...