Predictive regressions are linear specications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor such as valuation ratios, interest rates etc with the aim of assessing the presence or absence of predictability. Key complications that arise when...

In this paper we revisit the results in Caner and Hansen (2001), where the authors obtained novel limiting distributions of Wald type test statistics for testing for the presence of threshold nonlinearities in autoregressive models containing unit roots. Using the same framework, we obtain a new...

Inferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag...

Predictive regressions are linear specications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor such as valuation ratios, interest rates etc with the aim of assessing the presence or absence of predictability. Key complications that arise when...