Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. of Economics, 1982.

This is a study of 42 developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in which we first examine the impact of trade liberalisation on economic growth, investment share of GDP, openness, trade balance and current accounts (as percentages of GDP). Both panel data and country by country data...

The subject of the relationship between state budget and trade balance is important as economic subject, not only at the level of developing countries, but also at of advanced ones, too. Such importance emerged clearly when 1980s witnessed in United States of America a deficit in both state...

The U.S. sacrifices about ten full time jobs for each million dollars of net imports of goods and services. Its billions of dollars in trade deficit is the primary reason behind its millions of job losses. Loss of jobs, in turn, decreases income, demand, investment, and tax revenues. Budget...

International Macroeconomics has long sought an explanation for current account fluctuations that matches the data. The approaches have typically focused on better models and new macroeconomic variables. We demonstrate the limitations of this approach by showing that idiosyncratic shocks are an...

Using the structural vector auto-regression analysis of the terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption and investment cyclical components we show that the relationship between the terms-of-trade and trade balance is negative and that the terms-of-trade shocks explain only a small...

The major objective of this thesis is to investigate whether there exists a stable long run and short run equilibrium relationship between real money balances (M1 or M2) and their determinants in Thailand. A cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are conducted on...

Whether or not currency markets may be regarded as efficient or not has been a hotly debated issue in the academic literature over recent decades. Economic theory would suggest that these markets should be efficient because they are apparently good examples of a perfectly competitive market...

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...