We combine machine learning algorithms (ML) with textual analysis techniques to forecast bank stock returns. Our textual features are derived from press releases of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We show that ML models produce more accurate out-of-sample predictions than OLS...

The present study analyzes the journey of the Indian stock market during the period of 2019 to 2020. With the help of this study, we try to solve the puzzle that why the stock market is rising amid the slowdown in the Indian economy. Further, we also examine why only the Large-cap stocks were...

An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy’s close relationship to the...

While a wide variety of hypotheses have been offered to explain the anomalous market phenomena known as a “Flash Crash”, there is as of yet no consensus among financial experts as to the sources of these sudden market collapses. In contrast to the behavior expected from standard financial...

Fiyatlar kalabalıkların bilgeliğini mi, yoksa çılgınlığını mı yansıtır? Finansal krizlerin tarihine bakınca, varlık fiyatlarındaki rasyonel temellerden kopuk artışların pek de bilgelik eseri olmadığını düşünebiliriz. Finansal başarısızlık ve çöküş hikâyeleri;...

In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...

The theory of fair geometric returns, F theory for short, rejects the generally accepted notion that volatility is the risk of risky assets. Instead, it claims that capital market volatility, in turn, constitutes the maximum achievable geometric return. In order to get to the point, F theory, in...

Recent empirical literature shows that Internet search activity is closely associated with volatility prediction in financial and commodity markets. In this study, we search for a benchmark model with available market-based predictors to evaluate the net contribution of the Internet search...

Based on high-frequency firm-level data, this paper uncovers new empirical patterns on intraday momentum in China. First, there exists a strong intraday momentum effect at the firm level. Second, the intraday predictability stems mainly from the overnight component rather than the opening...

We propose a simple algorithm for the ex-ante valuation based on prospect theory. Our results reveal a strong and robust pricing effect associated with predicted values based on prospect theory (PV) in the US market, that is, higher ex-ante PV stocks associated with higher returns. Our findings...