, holding returns on government debt. This implies that changes in US government's scal position help predict future bond … returns. Our results also have implications for active management of government debt. …

public debt. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a two-country monetary union, calibrated to … match the characteristics of Spain and Germany, in which debt sustainability is endogenously determined a la Bi (2012) to … shape the responses of the risk premium on public debt. Policy shocks change the market’s expectation about future primary …

with regimes of high public debt through DSGE model simulations. The large public debt build-up following the 2009 global … increase in public debt is even more justified given the nature of the crisis. Yet, once the crisis is over and the recovery … firmly sets in, keeping debt at high levels over the medium term is a source of vulnerability in itself. Moreover, in the …

estimation of the correlation pattern of the macroeconomic determinants of public debt dynamics by means of Vector Auto … Regressions (VARs). These estimated models are used to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given … account the high correlation between the probability of crossing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread, we go a step …

institution ProCredit Ecuador is merged with the monthly data of seismic activity and explosions of the volcano Tungurahua in … Ecuador from 2001 to 2006. Results indicate that new clients are less likely to receive a loan after the shock, but old … der kombinierten Auswertung von seismischen Daten des Vulkans Tungurahua in Ecuador und der Kundendatenbank einer …

aggregate economic activity using data from Ecuador and Chile. …