Time series monitoring methods, such as the Brown and Trigg methods, have the purpose of detecting pattern breaks (or “signals”) in time series data reliably and in a timely fashion. Traditionally, researchers have used the average run length statistic (ARL) on results from generated signal...

A structural break is viewed as a permanent change in the parameter vector of a model. Using taxonomies of all sources of forecast errors for both conditional mean and conditional variance processes, we consider the impacts of breaks and their relevance in forecasting models: (a) where the...

The price transmission between markets is often interpreted as providing insights into the market’s infrastructure efficiency and transaction costs. Thus, finding a possible explanation for the degree of integration has become an issue of special interest. Recent researchers have pointed out...

The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets hasbeen a popular research topic of the past decades (see MEYER, VON CRAMONTAUBADEL,2004, for a recent survey), however with a few exceptions these studiesfocused on developed economies. In this paper we examine...

The low power of available econometric tests is an important problem in applied research on unit roots and related issues. Based on the principle of methodological triangulation, the problem should be analyzed from different points of view in order to increase the validity of the results....

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied EconomicsAssociation’s 2011 AAEA & NAREA Joint Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, July 24-26, 2011. (Poster Presentation)

This thesis develops a new Bayesian approach to structural break modeling. The focuses of the approach are the modeling of in-sample structural breaks and forecasting time series allowing out-of-sample breaks. Our model has some desirable features. First, the number of regimes is not fixed and...

Após a abertura comercial em 1998, grandes mudanças ocorreram no comércio exteriornacional devido sucessivos choques cambiais aos quais a economia foi exposta. A literaturade referência sugere que grandes choques na taxa de câmbio induzem mudanças persistentesna relação entre a taxa de...

The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series have received a great amount of attention in terms of theoretical and applied research over the last three decades. Since the seminal work by Nelson and Plosser (1982), testing for the presence of a unit root in the time series data has become...

This paper investigates the existence of cointegration and causality between the stock market price indices of Thailand and its major trading partners (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the US), using monthly data spanning...