For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Is the Philips Curve Still Applicable in Today’s Financial Environment? The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment, is not only considered by Gali and Gambetti (2018:2) to be a “a key link of the relation between prices and economic activity” but also regarded as the focus of...

The relationship between money and macroeconomic variables such as output, inflation and unemployment is the basis of macroeconomic policy piquing the interests of both academic economists and policy makers especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession. With the Federal Reserve expanding...

This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By...

This paper is looking into the causes of the GDP decline in Russia during 2008-2009 and the slow-down of the GDP growth during 2012-2013. The impact of the money supply on the GDP is discussed. Analogies are drawn with the crises in the USA: the Great Depression during 1929-1933 and the...

Since the 1980s, financial crises have tended to reoccur with increasing frequency and growing intensity. They are endogenously generated by the established OTD (Originate-To-Distribute) model within the new finance-growth paradigm. Good finance fosters the correct allocation of financial...

We estimate a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for the Dominican Republic (DR) for the sample 2003 – January 2016 using the principal component analysis methodology and the Hatzius et al. (2010) approach. The estimated FCI captures the periods of financial stress of the Dominican economy in...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The credit-to-GDP gap (credit gap) is thought to be a promising leading indicator of financial crises, but the trend of the credit-output ratio must be appropriately estimated before credit gaps can be used for this purpose. To appropriately estimate this ratio, it is necessary to know the...

The credit-to-GDP gap (credit gap) is thought to be a promising leading indicator of financial crises, but the trend of the credit-output ratio must be appropriately estimated before credit gaps can be used for this purpose. To appropriately estimate this ratio, it is necessary to know the...