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Flieth, B; Foster, J - 2002

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009447863

It takes more than a bubble to become Japan

Posen, Adam - 2003

bubbles, a bubble itself is not sufficient to cause real-side disruption. What central bankers should learn from Japan …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009472319

A Regime Shift Model of the Recent Housing Bubble in the United States

Van Order, Robert - 2006

It has been widely assumed that there was a bubble in the U.S. housing market after1999.This paper analyzes the extent to which that was true. We define a bubble as: (1) a regime shift that is characterized by a change in the properties of deviations from the fundamentals of house price growth,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009476926

Essays on speculation.

Slawski, Adam Wladyslaw - 2009

University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation. August 2009. Major: Economics. Advisor: Narayana Kocherlakota. 1 computer file (PDF); iv, 65 pages, appendices A-B.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009462812

Learning from experience in the stock market

Nakov, Anton; Nuño Barrau, Galo - 2011

Incluye bibliografía ; Este documento estudia la dinámica de los precios de las acciones en un modelo tipo «árbol de Lucas» en el que los inversores tienen vidas finitas y aprenden de su propia experiencia. Los individuos actualizan sus expectativas mediante aprendizaje bayesiano basado en...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530357

News Aware Volatility Forecasting: Is the Content of News Important?

Robertson, Calum S.; Geva, Shlomo; Wolff, Rodney C. - 2007

The efficient market hypothesis states that the market incorporates all available information to provide an accurate valuation of the asset at any given time. However, most models for forecasting the return or volatility of assets completely disregard the arrival of asset specific news (i.e.,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437639

Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets

Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H. - 2007

indicate,with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecastsand futures prices. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443339

How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market

Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip - 2008

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443351

ANALYSIS OF THE 2002 FARM BILL AND NEW FARM BILL ALTERNATIVES

Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W. - 2006

This report evaluates the 2002 farm bill and the effects of the individual programs within the bill on North Dakota net farm income. A stochastic simulation model was developed, using @Risk by Palisade. @Risk replaces the mean values for price and yield with a distribution of values for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009443998

MODELOS DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS APLICADOS À SÉRIE DOS ÍNDICES DE PREÇOS AO CONSUMIDOR NA REGIÃO DE LAVRAS, MG, NO PERÍODO DE 1992 A 1999

Silva, Roberta Bessa Veloso; Ferreira, Daniel Furtado; … - 2000

a modelfeaturing an intervention for a better model adjustment and forecast. The parameters of the model whichfeatured … in the forecast of PIC from May to December, 1999.To Brasília, the model fitted was an AR (2) with a permanent gradual …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009445618