In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple...

It has been widely assumed that there was a bubble in the U.S. housing market after1999.This paper analyzes the extent to which that was true. We define a bubble as: (1) a regime shift that is characterized by a change in the properties of deviations from the fundamentals of house price growth,...

University of Minnesota Ph.D. dissertation. August 2009. Major: Economics. Advisor: Narayana Kocherlakota. 1 computer file (PDF); iv, 65 pages, appendices A-B.

Incluye bibliografía ; Este documento estudia la dinámica de los precios de las acciones en un modelo tipo «árbol de Lucas» en el que los inversores tienen vidas finitas y aprenden de su propia experiencia. Los individuos actualizan sus expectativas mediante aprendizaje bayesiano basado en...