In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

In recent decades, enhancing the share of walking in individuals’ daily trips has become a priority for transportation policymakers, urban planners and public health researchers as an interdisciplinary area. In this regard, determining influential factors on walking has become a matter of...

A unified quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation theory for stationary and nonstationary simple Markov bilinear (SMBL) models is proposed. Such models may be seen as generalized random coefficient autoregressions (GRCA) in which the innovation and the random coefficient processes are fully...

This manuscript provides an introduction to statistics and probability method. It is structured around three themes developed in five chapters. The first part is an introduction to probability calculations in which we introduce the notions of elementary probability, probabilized spaces, random...

This paper examines a number of techniques which allow for the construction of bounds estimates based on instrumental variables (IVs), even when the instruments are not valid. The plausexog and imperfectiv commands are introduced, which implement methods described by Conley et al. (2012) and...

This work is the third, but not the last, in the cycle begun by the works [23, 22] about the new theory of experience and chance as the theory of co~events. Here I introduce the concepts of two co~event means, which serve as dual co~event characteristics of some co~event. The very idea of dual...

Distributions of random variables defined on finite intervals were considered in connection with some problems of behavioral economics. To develop the results obtained for finite intervals, auto-image distributions of random variables defined on infinite or semi-infinite intervals are proposed...

The paper sets up a calculation of the effective exchange rate for Slovenia, and compares it to the methodologies used by the IMF, BIS, European Commission and ECB. Additionally we construct smaller regional effective exchange rates that help to explain the robustness of the Slovene export...

Though measurement theory has traditionally got full attention and appreciation in scientific researches, its service in social sciences is young in years. Most of the popular definitions of measurement refer only to measuring objects or events in science; however, the phenomena to be measured in...

A general Markov-Switching autoregressive conditional mean model, valued in the set of nonnegative numbers, is considered. The conditional distribution of this model is a finite mixture of nonnegative distributions whose conditional mean follows a GARCH-like dynamics with parameters depending on...