This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast...

Wirtschaftsprognosen sollen die Unsicherheit bezüglich der zukünftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mindern und Planungsprozesse von Regierungen und Unternehmen unterstützen. Empirische Studien bescheinigen ihnen jedoch in aller Regel ein unbefriedigendes Qualitätsniveau. Auf der Suche nach...

In this paper, I develop and estimate a dynamic model of strategicnetwork formation with heterogeneous agents. The main theoretical resultis the existence of a unique stationary equilibrium, which characterizesthe probability of observing a specific network in the data. As aconsequence, the...

In models with unobserved taste heterogeneity, distributional assumptions can be placed in two ways: (1) by specifying the distribution of coefficients in the utility function and deriving the distribution of willingness to pay (wtp), or (2) by specifying the distribution of wtp and deriving the...

Estimation of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-askspreads are usually not observed. Spread estimators that use transaction data are available,but little agreement exists on their relative accuracy and performance. We evaluate fourconventional and a...