Based on a classical financial market model different model variants known from the literature are discussed and analyzed, each focussing on modeling financial markets as a nonlinear dynamic system by introducing the formation of (heterogeneous) beliefs about future asset prices into the model...

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate...

To overcome the curse of dimensionality, dimension reduction is important andnecessary for understanding the underlying phenomena in a variety of fields.Dimension reduction is the transformation of high-dimensional data into ameaningful representation in the low-dimensional space. It can be...

Commodity and energy prices have exhibited an unprecedented increase between October 2006 and July 2008, only to fall sharply during the last months of 2008. Many explanations have been offered to this phenomenon, including steadily increasing demand from China and India, large mandated...

For seventy years ecologists have debated to what extent competition affects the composition of ecological communities. At one extreme, species have been proposed to assemble independently of each other, while at the other extreme, competition and other interspecific interactions have been...

A Bayes net has qualitative and quantitative aspects: The qualitative aspect is its graphical structure that corresponds to correlations among the variables in the Bayes net. The quantitative aspects are the net parameters. This paper develops a hybrid criterion for learning Bayes net structures...

As disease spreads through a population, scientists want to know who gets sick, how bestto prevent a large outbreak, and if an epidemic may occur. For many years, mathematicians usedmodels to approximate answers to these questions; however, these older models used simplifyingassumptions about...

This paper explores the interconnections between two of Herbert Simon's key concepts, bounded rationality and decomposability, and show how this unity provides the starting point for merging cognitively focused approaches to behavioral economics with evolutionary/institutional economics into a...

Economics is viewed as a discipline that is mainly concerned with 'simplistic' theorizing, centered upon constrained optimization. As such, it is ahistorical and outcome focused, ie, it does not deal with economic processes. It is argued that all parts of the economy are inhabited by complex...

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of...