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Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009467169
The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflictedsubstantial financial, economic, and social damage on thecountries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiencyof early warning indicators for these disastrous economic eventsis evaluated. An analysis of the traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009471830
verbessern.Kapitel 5 beschäftigt sich schließlich mit dem Einfluss der jüngsten Finanzkrise auf die Kreditverfügbarkeit für KKMU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009476202
Situation auf dem formellen Beteiligungsmarkt in Deutschland nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise. Neben den allgemeinen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009449026
Conventional soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] production in the midsouthern USA has involved planting Maturity Group (MG) V and later cultivars in May and later months in a seedbed that has been shallow-tilled in the fall or spring just before planting. Moisture deficits that frequently occur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429446
variation, raising the question of a bubble. I carry out two different bubbles tests, the results of both of which are … consistent with the presence of an allowance price bubble. I then address whether market manipulation by dominant power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450863
In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009447863
bubbles, a bubble itself is not sufficient to cause real-side disruption. What central bankers should learn from Japan …Did monetary ease in the 1980s cause Japan's bubble, as is often suggested? Drawing on both a new cross … conclude the bubble was just as likely to occur whatever monetary policy within reason would have done. Did the bubble's burst …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009472319
It has been widely assumed that there was a bubble in the U.S. housing market after1999.This paper analyzes the extent … to which that was true. We define a bubble as: (1) a regime shift that is characterized by a change in the properties of … was less apparent in the likely bubble candidate cities along the coasts, which had shown high growth in the past. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009476926
of speculative bubble, which is analyzed in Essay 2, is understood as an excess of the equilibrium price over the current … disagreement leads to a speculative bubble, which is independent on any observed history of data. I extend this example by adding … techniques to analyze the dynamics of a speculative bubble in a very special case of a Markov dividend process and the prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009462812