Showing 1 - 10 of 3,971
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
increased inflation uncertainty. Ball (1992) produces macroeconomic theory that could justify that causality. But other …Since the publication of Friedman’s (1977) Nobel lecture, the relationship between the mean function of the inflation … stochastic process and its uncertainty has been the subject of much research. Friedman postulated that high inflation causes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015260251
We empirically test the effect of ageing on housing prices. Our analysis shows that a decline in the fertility rate and an increase in longevity – the two main causes of an ageing population – have divergent effects on housing prices. This empirical finding helps us to reconcile a conflict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015264267
the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by …This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and … stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015251466
Since the publication of Friedman’s (1977) Nobel lecture, the relationships between the mean function of the inflation … stochastic process and its uncertainty, and between inflation uncertainty (IU) and real output growth have been the subject of … correlation between mean inflation and inflation volatility with causation in either direction. We conduct a systematic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015212744
Abstract: Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic general-equilibrium macroeconomic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215298
The paper deals with the detection and measurement of the level of persistence on aggregate private consumption in … persistence shown by the consumption in Portugal can be beneficial for the effectiveness of the countercyclical fiscal and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216802
The paper concerns the design of nonparametric low-pass filters that have the property of reproducing a polynomial of a given degree. Two approaches are considered. The first is locally weighted polynomial regression (LWPR), which leads to linear filters depending on three parameters: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217044
parameter estimation of GARCH error term. So that the model can be applied in practice. We then illustrate the model and … estimation methods with a few of different finance data sets. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217387