Rationale A geopolitical fragmentation of world trade, i.e. the emergence of two blocs that restrict trade with … harness greater trade integration with the European Union to reduce the costs of a potential fragmentation of world trade. …

indicate,with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecastsand futures prices. The …

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …

either revenue or income at the 70% level, as suggested by the World Trade Organization. …

a modelfeaturing an intervention for a better model adjustment and forecast. The parameters of the model whichfeatured … in the forecast of PIC from May to December, 1999.To Brasília, the model fitted was an AR (2) with a permanent gradual …

high capacity of forecast of the model structuralized for the development of the study. Admitting the forecasted values …

earnings forecast precision, accuracy, and bias (downward versusupward).Results of the study are mixed. Regarding forecast … negatively related to management earnings forecast precision. This was theexpected relationship. Regarding forecast accuracy … segments a firm discloses. Regarding forecast bias, unexpectedly, twomeasures of multinationality (foreign sales / total sales …

parameters using well grouping, the methodology establishes a probabilistic forecast for individual wells.We present a …