A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the...

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no...

A viable safeguards system includes among other things the development and use of indices which trigger various courses of action. The usual limit of error calculation provides such an index. The classical approach is one of constructing tests which, under certain assumptions, make the...

The European Community (EC) recently commissioned a study of the impact of potential appliance standards on electricity consumption in the twelve EC nations. This study looks at refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, and clothes dryers. The impact of minimum efficiency standards...

As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time...

This report presents recommendations relative to the use of expert systems and machine learning techniques by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to substantially automate product substitution decisions associated with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Thirteen commercially available, PC-based...