The paper presents two simple models of dynamic consumer behavior, both taking into consideration the implications for welfare measurement when agents can delay transactions while obtaining additional information. One model studies the effect when a purchased good is non-perishable and can be...

In a static setting, willingness to pay for an environmental improvement is equal to compensating variation. However, in a dynamic setting characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility, and the potential for learning, willingness to pay may also contain an option value. In this paper, we...

Due to payoff uncertainties combined with risk aversion and/or real options, farmers may demand a premium in order to adopt conservation tillage practices, over and above the compensation for the expected profit losses (if any). We propose a method of directly estimating the financial incentives...

(cont.) by presenting two case studies both in the context of the Chicago Transit Authority. One study proposes an enhanced method of inferring the rail trip OD matrix from an origin-only AFC system to replace the routine passenger survey. The proposed algorithm takes advantage of the pattern of...

Department: School of Business.

Forecasting price spikes is a timely issue for the deregulated electricity market. Traditional price forecasting techniques show poor performance in handling price spikes, which usually follow a pattern different from the prices under normal market conditions. Therefore, novel approaches are...