Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model … Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns … over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector …

técnicas bayesianas (BVAR) que supone reescalar por magnitudes diferentes la varianza de los errores de la forma reducida. Se … grandes oscilaciones en los datos macroeconómicos que distorsionan los resultados de estimación de los modelos BVAR. En … tienen en cuenta los valores atípicos antes de 2020, se obtienen ligeras mejoras en las previsiones puntuales de los BVAR …

risk. Consistent with corporate hedging theory, the case study finds that hedging contributes to smooth companies' earning …

theory. …

models that allow for a slowly evolving local mean when forecasting inflation … models used by the Banco de España to monitor consumer price inflation and forecast its future trends. The strategy followed …

average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus … Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating inflation expectations … countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food and both point and density …