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In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/noparametric inference is the norm in several fields of applied econometric work....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265696
As an asset is traded at fair value, its varying price trace an interesting trajectory reflecting in a general way the asset’s value and underlying economic activities. These trajectory exhibit jumps, clustering and a host of other properties not usually captured by Gaussian based models. Levy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015237550
Since times of Yule (1926), it is known that correlation between two time series can produce spurious results. Granger and Newbold (1974) see the roots of spurious correlation in non-stationarity of the time series. However the study of Granger, Hyung and Jeon (2001) prove that spurious...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015245070
The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015254084
This paper studies the sequential sampling scheme as a solution to the problem of aliasing, where the sampling interval is restricted to a minimum allowable value. Sequential sampling is analyzed and it is proved that when the sampling ratio is an integral number, the associated spectral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216309
This study develops a hybrid model to integrate climate risks into Côte d'Ivoire’s economic policy, drawing on the work of economists like Keynes, Ostrom, Stiglitz, Sen, and Nordhaus. The model combines decentralized governance, climate risk externalities, and capacity building to address the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214566
When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on so-called abductive simulation models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215481
The main aim of this paper is to introduce the network averaging technique. This technique is introduced because accurately determining the structure of real networks can be difficult and the network averaging technique provides a proxy for real networks. A second aim is to introduce the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015231442
L'objet de ce papier n'est pas tant de présenter les principaux algorithmes utilisés en modélisation économique - nombre de manuels font des présentations de meilleure qualité et plus exhaustives - que d'en proposer une vision critique. Les modèles économiques, et plus particulièrement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232371
The assumption we submit, because macroeconomic forcasts would be unperfect, is that behavioral equations doesn't enough describe economic behaviours through the capacity of reaction opposite to environment. Further, the forcaster belongs to his search-system, so that, may be, we must now...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015232881