Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining … extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on … absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF?s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation …

thesis, we introduce the principle of maximum causal entropy, a general technique for applying information theory to decision …

and judgment are poorly understood, and board influence on organisational performance needs to be better understood. This … new information or the repackaging of existing information in a new form. The thesis argues that Weick’s theory of … establish a general theory of board governance, the thesis embraces calls to build situation-specific mini-theories about board …

representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select and combine forecasts. We use five categories to … accuracy when tested on 104 annual economic and demographic time series. Gains in accuracy were greatest when (1) the causal … walk. Use of the rule improved accuracy for 20 series where the trends were contrary; the MdAPE (Median Absolute Percentage …

quality of the judgment of that decision maker. If the evaluator has knowledge of a negative outcome, then that knowledge … negatively influences his or her assessment of the ex ante judgment. For instance, jurors in a lawsuit brought against an auditor … reports the results of an experiment in an applied audit judgment setting that examined methods of mitigating the outcome …

The Theory of Technology Dominance (Arnold & Sutton, 1998) proposes that the continued use of intelligent decision aids … the continued use of intelligent decision aids reduce the auditor’s skills in forming their professional judgment?’ No … prior research has explored deskilling of auditor judgment. The research is important for practice to ensure a strong audit …

uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual … analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the … magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute …