Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research for aggregating the qualitative predictions at the microlevel into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for...

Baigiamojo darbo tikslas - identifikavus egzistuojančių ekonomikos ciklo posūkio taškų prognozavimo metodų silpnybes bei nustačius metodų tobulinimo kryptis, pateikti metodą, kuris bet dalinai pašalintų įvardintus trūkumus ir jį patikrinti. Teorinės darbo dalies tikslas –...

Este trabajo propone un nuevo procedimiento para estimar el fechado de los cambios de fase (picos y valles) en un ciclo económico de referencia, a partir del fechado de los cambios de fase en los ciclos económicos específicos de un conjunto amplio de indicadores económicos coincidentes. Cada...

Este trabajo proporciona una cronología precisa del ciclo económico de referencia de la economía española. Para ello, se adapta el procedimiento de fechado, que considera la posibilidad de múltiples puntos de cambio en la fase del ciclo, propuesto por Camacho, Gadea y Gómez Loscos (2021)....

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Empirical research is done to determine whether trading strategies based on technical analysiscan outperform a naive buy-and-hold strategy. A study is made of classical and contemporaryacademic literature. The central investigation is threefold. Firstly, the degree of...

This paper studies the profitability of applying technical analysis that signals the entry and exit from the stock market in three Chinese stock markets - the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan Stock Exchanges. The Simple Moving Average (MA) and its extensions, Exponential MA, Dual MA, Triple MA,...

In an efficient market, technical analysis cannot earn abnormal returns. Technical strategies are inferior to a buy and hold strategy since they typically churn investor accounts. Nonetheless, technical analysis appears to thrive. The purpose of this paper is to explain why technical analysis...

This paper demonstrates that crude estimators can correctly identify statistically significant technical patterns in major index data. The introduction of intra-day prices significantly improves a crude estimators’ ability to identify technical barriers. Double tops are associated with...

Magistro baigiamajame darbe suformuluotos akcijų portfelio formavimo ir valdymo problemos, išanalizuoti fundamentalios ir techninės analizės metodų taikymo principai, susisteminti įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teoriniai ir praktiniai vertybinių popierių portfelio valdymo...