A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts,...

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction...

Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not...

In this paper, we engage with O'Brien's [O'Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709-722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider...

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these...

Purpose - Hard decision analysis models allow complex decisions to be broken down into easier-to-handle and precisely defined sub-problems and also provide a documented rationale for the decision. This paper aims to investigate why the course of action prescribed by a hard decision analysis...