This paper uses a numerical general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative importance of pre-existing factor tax distortions for the welfare effects of restrictive trade policies in economies with and without market power in trade. We analyze tariffs, nonauctioned import quotas (with...

Already before the EU Directive 96/92/EG was passed in 1996, some countries in the EU had started their liberalisation process for energy markets. So, in 1991, Norway established a national power market that in 1996 turned into the multinational power exchange Nord Pool, including all Nordic...

The State Heating Oil and Propane Price (SHOPP) survey for the 1993--1994 heating season was conducted by the Pennsylvania Energy Office (PEO) in conjunction with the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA). The objective of the program was to collect price...

In late summer 1996, in response to relatively low inventory levels and tight world oil markets, prices for crude oil, natural gas, and products derived from both began to increase rapidly ahead of the winter heating season. Various government and private sector forecasts indicated the potential...

The springs of 1996 and 1997 provide an excellent example of contrasting gasoline market dynamics. In spring 1996, tightening crude oil markets pushed up gasoline prices sharply, adding to the normal seasonal gasoline price increases; however, in spring 1997, crude oil markets loosened and crude...

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory uses the U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to supply high-resolution wind data for use in its real-time dispersion modeling system. ARAC has used COAMPS...

Current practice uses statistical tests to determine whether seasonal factors should be applied in a given forecasting situation. Research suggests that an optimal policy might lie somewhere between using full seasonal factors and using no seasonal factors on series. This research proposes and...

The paper develops a short-term space-time traffic flow forecasting strategy integrating the empirical-based seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series forecasting technique with the theoretical-based first-order macroscopic traffic flow model-cell transmission model....

This paper presents a methodology for forecasting seasonal streamflow and is an extension of a previously developed categorical streamflow forecast model that used persistence (i.e., the previous season’s streamflow) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators. This newly developed...