policies are most appropriate for society now, given alternative visions of the future and the enormous uncertainty about the … uncertainty about the nature of the world, its carrying capacity for humans, the impacts of climate change, and other aspects of … parameter uncertainty in models). Application of this vision/uncertainty analysis can help us both to design the future society …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise … paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability …. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models …

uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual … analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the … magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute …

probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as … demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on …