In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation and comparison of flexible, high dimensional multivariate time series models with time varying correlations. The model proposed and considered here combines features of the classical factor model with that of the heavy tailed univariate...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. We report two studies involving six binary...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. This paper reports two studies involving six...

Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that...

Mobile information and communication technologies (ICT) promise to significantly transform enterprises, their business processes and services, improve employee productivity, effectiveness, and efficiency, and create new competitive advantages and business agility. Despite the plethora of...