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Central bank announcements have strong effects on interest rates, but small or even counterintuitive effects on economic expectations. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and provide evidence that they are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012265893
Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011972952
It is well known that a tightening or easing of the United States' monetary policy affects financial markets in emerging economies. This paper argues that uncertainty about future monetary policy is a separate transmission channel. We focus on the taper tantrum episode in 2013, a period with an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983337
This paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the "forward guidance puzzle". Our identification strategy allows us to disentangle the change in future interest rates stemming from deviations from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214409
The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496228
This paper shows that the Fed reacts to change in spreads between corporate bond yields and government bond yields over and beyond their information content on future inflation and future activity. This result, obtained in a GMM framework, is confirmed by simulation methods. Moreover, when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136336
Fed's monetary policy announcements convey a mix of news about different kinds of conventional and unconventional policies and about the economy. Financial market responses to these announcements are very leptokurtic: often tiny, but sometimes large. I estimate the underlying structural shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607553
This paper investigates how conventional and unconventional monetary policies announcements affect European banking indexes returns through an event-study analysis. We use data of 11 European banking indexes for the periods 1999-2015. We examine the state dependency of such effects and focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776487
This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of foreign and domestic central bank government bond purchases on the Swedish economy before and during the Corona pandemic using a small open economy DSGE model with segmented asset markets. In this model, the effects of foreign and domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232954
This paper analyzes the effects of the extraordinary measures implemented by the Bank of Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic on financial conditions. For this purpose, we estimate a factoraugmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model for the period 2001-2021. Based on this model, we construct a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251037