We use data on price expectations from a survey of randomly sampled smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Across all crops, farmers expect higher prices in the lean season. Yet, farmers report selling mostly within two weeks of harvest at significantly lower prices with liquidity constrained...

This paper studies household beliefs during the recent US housing boom. To characterize the heterogeneity in households' views about housing and the economy, we perform a cluster analysis on survey responses at different stages of the boom. The estimation always finds a small cluster of...

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...