Starting from the discrete-time a ne term structure model by Dai, Le & Singleton (2006), this paper proposes a Radon-Nikodym derivative which implies that factors follow a mixture distribution under the physical measure. The model thus maintains attractive features of an affine relation between...

This article proposes an overview of the usefulness of the regime switching approach for building various kinds of bond pricing models and of the roles played by the regimes in these models. Both default-free and defaultable bonds are considered. The regimes can be used to capture stochastic...

Compared with stocks, bonds are more directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices through the expected inflation component in nominal bond yields. Surprisingly, prior literature finds little predictive power of oil price changes on bond excess returns. This finding is counter intuitive,...

In this paper we try to uncover the determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield in both pre- and post-crisis period that caused the unprecedented event, in the recent history, a country, member of the Euro area, not to able to tap the market. In doing so, we employ two major set of variables,...

Long term forward rates contain information that greatly improves the precision with which expectations of future short rates can be distinguished from risk premia in the term structure. Indeed, in affine models, the slope of the term structure of risk premia for long maturities is very closely...

We study drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads...

The standard way to summarize the yield curve is to use the first three principal components of the yield curve, resulting in level, slope and curvature factors. Yields, however, are non-stationary. We analyze the first three principal components of yield changes, which correspond to changes in...

This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We show that macroeconomic variables as well as monetary policy variables have a significant impact on two factors that capture the variation in yields. An increase in the inflation...

Testing of the expectation hypothesis (EH) for very short interest rates has provided mixed results. My paper seeks to reconcile conflicting evidence on the EH for the US repo market by exploiting the fact that repo rates are affected by the demand/supply of bonds provided as collateral against...

Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns. These results stand as a...