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We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log- linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the valuation anchor. We...
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We provide the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the...
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The vast majority of U.S. public firms announce earnings in the post-close (between the closing bell and midnight, or PC) or the pre-open (between midnight and the opening bell, or PO). Prior literature generally treats PC and PO announcements as equivalent when measuring the market reaction to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853522
The same firm characteristics that help explain cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns, such as size, book-to-market and the earnings yield, also help explain cross-sectional variation in returns to trading in option-implied stock return volatility. This empirical phenomenon is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855869
This paper examines how changes in firms’ risk disclosures affect a key market measure of risk. Our proxy for changes in risk disclosures is the addition and removal of individual risk factors to firms’ 10-K annual filings, identified via textual analysis of the risk factors section. Our...
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This study generates out-of-sample predictions from training data to construct investment portfolios that are mean-variance optimized and rebalanced daily to assess gains from incorporating signals based on post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), the earnings announcement premium (EAP), and...
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